It’s definitely no a good idea to wager on Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros for the first time in 20 years.
Nadal has won 18 French Open titles in his career and 14 instances and has won the prize. Surprisingly, despite a strike rate of 78 %, just when did Nadal’s chances to get exactly reveal his level of dominance: in 2009, when he was a -400 preferred heading into the game and really lost to Robin Soderling in the third round.
Nadal most just won the French Open in 2022 as a + 400 outsider, despite having won the Australian Open a few months earlier. A missed bet on Nadal the four times he fell short in Paris would have been sufficient to cover his loss from that bet alone.

All in all, placing$ 100 on Nadal to win the French Open every year between 2005 and 2022 would have netted a bettor a total gain of$ 1, 134. That’s a very nice return.
This time, however, the conflict have shifted. The 37-year-old qualified for the French Open through a protected rank as a player returning from injury in what may be his final French Open appearance. For his first- square game, Nadal drew No. Alexander Zverev, the fourth plant, just finished winning the European Open on May 19th. The two last time the two played was in a three-hour long, tough set that included two sets of an ankle injury that forced Zverev to withdraw from.
Nadal has been plagued by wellness concerns since the 2022 season, playing just 15 games in the past 18 month. This time, he has played in three cement events, none of which saw him reach the quarterfinals. And still, FanDuel gives Nadal 23- to- 1 chances to get the French Open—the eighth best of any man—while DraftKings lists him at a comparable 28- to- 1.
You ca n’t count out Nadal at the French Open. The Spaniard is 112- 3 at Roland Garros in his profession, he did n’t cut a cast in 87 of those win, and he was pushed to five pieces only once. Against all competitors never named Novak Djokovic, he is 102- 1 and has been nearly as likely to get a fixed 6- 0 ( 22 days ) than he’s been to reduce it ( 23 days ).
Rafa at the European Open has historically been the best bet in sports over the past 20 years, but this trip could be the end of that time.