Sportsbooks always give conflict that accurately reflect actual world outcomes. A new line offered by FanDuel, but, took the gap to a new stage.
The Cleveland Cavaliers ‘ 2-0 start in the 2024-25 NBA regular season was promoted to conflict of + 100000 in a blog on X from the FanDuel Sportsbook bill on Tuesday evening. With a record of 12-0, the Cavs are the only group in the league still unbeaten.
The article, which had more than 1 million ideas by the end of the day, got lots of attention, but not the good form. ” What if … the Cavs only NEVER lost this time”? study the paper’s comment. What if you simply stated that you either only offered fair prices or that you simply did n’t offer this market? Jeffrey Benson, mind of activities for Circa Sports, wrote in the responses.

However, the rate is detached from reality. Chances of + 100000 mean that a punter bet$ 1 to earn$ 1, 000, but the chances of an undefeated season are evidently much longer than 1 in 1, 000. Simply consider the fact that, across roughly 1, 700 personal group months in NBA history, no company has always won more than 33 games in a column.
Assuming the 2024-25 Cavaliers are as good as the 2015-16 Warriors, who finished 73-9, which seems highly unlikely, we could assign them an 89 % probability ( 73 / 82 ) of winning each game. With those prospects, the odds of winning the next 70 game would be about 1 in 3, 500.
Basketball Reference calculates that the Cavaliers ‘ margin of victory this year, when adjusted for opponent strength, is roughly + 10.0 %. A 10-point favorites in an NBA game does have sportsbook odds of around -540, per The Action Network, implying an 85 % chance of victory. If we give the Cavs just an 85 % chance of winning each of their next 70 game, they may have closer to a 1 in 100, 000 chance of going undefeated.
Yet that number, however, seriously understates the improbability of an unbeaten season. In every activity, an NBA group is not favored by more than 10 points. In fact, it may be favored by 16 factors against a terrible team but only by four factors against a great team, for example. Their chances of going 82-0 falls to less than 1 in a million if we assume that the point spreads for the Cavaliers are almost evenly distributed throughout this range.
And for a variety of reasons, the actual figure is probably more severe. Here’s one: Donovan Mitchell has n’t played more than 77 games since his rookie season, and Cleveland is only 19-22 without him during his tenure there. We’re suddenly talking about 1 in 10 million if we generously assume Mitchell wo n’t play for five games this year and give the team a 50 % chance to win those games.
Remember that FanDuel is offering just$ 1, 000 per$ 1 bet. A punter could place a betting wager with -540 odds for 70 right games, starting with$ 1 on the first match, and then reinvesting any winnings in the following games in place of taking the bet. This fictitious bettor would end up winning more than$ 100, 000 if the Cavaliers actually won.

Across the industry, sportsbooks have been trying to lean into novelty bets that hit major storylines, a blend of marketing and oddsmaking. FanDuel’s representative declined to comment.
More stringent rules have been criticized for sports betting. Some of the proposed guidelines include banning “bonus bet” promotions that make adolescent gamblers engage in unhealthy behavior and a ban on prop bets for college athletes.
In theory, it might be illegal for sports betting companies to make offers like those made by FanDuel on the Cavaliers. They could, for example, be required for all odds to have a price for both possible outcomes: in this case, on the Cavaliers going undefeated and the Cavaliers not going undefeated.